Taiwan Kuang military exercise will focus on possibility of invasion

Taipei: The Ministry of National Defense said that China’s growing use of “gray zone” tactics and the potential for an invasion by 2027 would be the main topics of Taiwan‘s annual Han Kuang military drills, according to Taipei Times. The decision was made at a time when military leaders and security analysts across the globe are still pointing to 2027 as a crucial deadline for Taiwan’s defense plan.

China could try to attack Taiwan by 2027, according to an earlier warning from former US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson. Although Beijing refuted the assertion at the time, claiming it was a US ruse to increase military expenditure, the year has since been often brought up in defense planning debates. Last year, former US Indo-Pacific Commander John Aquilino reaffirmed that the US military had to be ready for emergencies before the 2027 timeline specified by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

According to Su Tzu-yun, a fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, using timeframes as a guide for defense policy is common. Su pointed out that there is no concrete proof that an official decision to use force by 2027 has been taken, despite reports that Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready for an invasion by then.

Xi’s order to the PLA was a “reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition,” according to Taipei Times, which quoted former CIA director William Burns on February 2, 2023.

More lately, China is expanding its military, especially in nuclear weapons launch systems and dual-use shipyards, according to US Air Force Strategic Commander General Anthony Cotton. He said that the US should increase its own military manufacturing in reaction to these advancements, which are consistent with plans to be able to attack Taiwan by 2027.

Governments throughout the globe have been warned by security professionals to get ready for a potential battle. Accelerated defense measures have been demanded by former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzullo and Japanese expert Takashi Kawakami. In the meanwhile, Davidson emphasized that China would keep working to reduce US dominance in the Indo-Pacific, regardless of whether it invades in 2027.

Su pointed out that some defense think tanks have suggested different due dates, such as 2035 and 2049, which coincide with significant PLA anniversaries. But he cautioned that Xi may use military force to defend his rule if he runs for a fourth term.

This might create a “perfect storm,” he warned, adding that the Han Kuang exercises’ emphasis on 2027 is a reasonable reaction to these worries, as reported by Taipei Times. He also mentioned China’s burgeoning aspirations as a maritime power.

Last Monday, the defense ministry wrapped up its “immediate response drills,” which Su said adhered to the risk-control philosophy. He went on to say that the purpose of these exercises was to prevent China from “turning exercises into war.”