UNCTAD estimates global trade to reach a record US$33 trillion in 2024

Geneva: Global commerce is expected to reach a record USD33 trillion in 2024, up USD1 trillion from 2023, according to the United Nations Conference on Commerce and Development (UNCTAD). This is a 3.3% yearly gain, demonstrating the robustness of international commerce in the face of persistent difficulties.

The strong rise in trade services, which rose 7% this year, was a major factor in this expansion, making up about half of the total growth, according to UNCTAD’s most recent Global Trade Update.

Conversely, the goods trade increased by a meager 2%, staying below its high in 2022.

The paper emphasized the difficulties facing emerging economies, which have historically been important forces behind international commerce. In Q3 2024, these economies had a 1% decline in imports and a comparable decline in South-South trade.

In contrast, advanced economies had the most growth during the quarter, with steady demand fueling a 2% increase in exports and a 3% gain in imports.

The analysis highlighted the potential for emerging nations to profit from high-growth industries in spite of these challenges. In Q3 2024, trade in apparel and ICT items increased by 14% and 13%, respectively, highlighting the possibility of diversification into value-added sectors.

Traditional industries that are vital to emerging economies have been declining, according to sector-specific statistics. Metals trade shrank by 3%, while energy commerce decreased by 2% in Q3 and 7% year-over-year.
Despite a 3% decline in Q3, the automotive industry is predicted to increase by 4% annually by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, there are encouraging opportunities to strengthen resilience in 2025 due to steady global growth projections and lower inflation.